Most sales teams aren’t hitting the mark with their forecasts. A 2023 study found that 93% of sales leaders can’t predict revenue with 5% accuracy even when the quarter is almost over. And to make things harder, only 45% feel confident in their forecast numbers.

That kind of uncertainty makes planning tough. When you’re not sure what’s coming, it’s harder to make smart hiring decisions, plan budgets, or hit your targets.

The good news? You don’t need to guess anymore. With the right steps, you can improve your forecasting accuracy and give your team the clarity they need.

In this guide, we’ll walk through simple, practical ways to make your forecasts more reliable without overcomplicating things.

What Is Sales Forecasting Accuracy?

Sales forecasting accuracy is the difference between the revenue you predicted and what you actually made. The closer those two numbers match, the better your accuracy.

For instance, if your team projected $500,000 for the quarter and you ended with $480,000, your forecast accuracy is 96% (only 4% off). The goal is always to make that gap as small as possible.

But why is forecasting accuracy such a big deal?

• Better decision-making – Accurate sales forecasting helps you allocate resources efficiently.

• Predictability – No one likes surprises when it comes to revenue, especially executives and investors.

• Trust and credibility – Consistently hitting your forecast builds confidence across the organization.

In short, accurate forecasts help you plan better, stress less, and make smarter decisions about your team's future.

What’s Considered Good Forecast Accuracy?

Forecast accuracy is measured by how closely your predictions match actual sales outcomes. A common way to evaluate this is through forecast variance (the difference between forecasted revenue and actual revenue), usually expressed as a percentage.

Here's what this typically looks like in practice:

• Excellent accuracy – Within 5% variance

• Good accuracy – Within 10% variance (considered acceptable in most industries)

• Needs improvement – More than 15% variance

But remember, what's realistic for your team can vary based on your industry, market conditions, and sales cycle length. So, keep your forecasts consistently within 10% of your actual results to reliably plan resources, align team priorities, and predict future sales more accurately.

Ways to Improve Sales Forecasting Accuracy

If your forecasts are off, it’s usually because of unclear processes or messy data. These steps will help you fix that and make your numbers more reliable.

1. Clearly Define Your Sales Forecasting Process

If your forecasting process is unclear, your results will be too. Start by getting everyone on the same page with simple definitions, clear goals, and a consistent process your team can actually stick to.

Set Clear Market Definitions and Goals

Before you start forecasting, make sure your team agrees on the basics. Who are you selling to? What counts as a qualified lead? How long is your average sales cycle forecasting window? And what does success actually look like?

Getting clear on these questions upfront helps you avoid confusion later. It also ensures that everyone is working from the same expectations, so your forecast is built on real inputs, not guesswork.

Choose the Right Forecasting Approach

You don’t need to overthink it. But you do need to pick a sales forecasting method that fits your business model and team.

Here are a few common ones to consider:

• Top-down forecasting - Start with a big-picture revenue goal and work backward. This approach is fast and works well for strategic planning but can miss on-the-ground details.

• Bottom-up forecasting - Build your forecast from rep-level inputs and deal data. It’s more detailed and grounded in real activity, but it takes more time and effort.

• Pipeline forecasting - Use your current open deals, weighted by probability, to predict outcomes. This method is great for short-term visibility, especially if your pipeline is up to date.

• Opportunity-stage forecasting - Estimate revenue based on the stage of each deal in your pipeline. Deals further along carry more weight. It’s more dynamic and lets you track progress more closely over time.

Choosing one method (or combining a couple) helps remove the guesswork and gives your team a clear, consistent way to build accurate forecasts. Once the process is defined, everyone’s working from the same playbook.

2. Standardize and Validate Your Data

Your forecast is only as good as the data behind it. If your CRM is full of outdated deals, missing fields, or inconsistent entries, you're not forecasting; you’re guessing.

That’s why setting clear data standards and making time to validate your data regularly is key to improving accuracy.

Agree on Data Standards

Start by making sure everyone knows exactly what to enter and how to enter it. This includes things like what qualifies as a new opportunity, how to track deal stages, which fields are required for each sales record, and how to name and organize deal notes.

Keep your rules simple and easy to follow. The fewer exceptions, the better, as it keeps your data cleaner and your forecasts more accurate.

Validate Your Data Regularly

Don’t wait until the end of the quarter to clean up your CRM. Schedule regular check-ins (weekly or biweekly) to:

• Remove stalled or dead deals

• Correct outdated or duplicate entries

• Confirm that deal stages reflect actual progress

• Fill in missing fields that impact forecasting

It’s also smart to automate data capture where possible. Tools like Truva track activities like emails, meetings, and updates automatically, keeping your pipeline current without your reps having to do extra admin work.

This gives you more accurate, real-time data to base your forecasts on and frees your team to focus on selling, not spreadsheet cleanup.

3. Regularly Review and Update Your Forecast

Forecasts aren’t meant to be static. Markets shift, deals move, and new information comes in all the time, so your forecast should change with it. The more often you check in and adjust, the more accurate your projections will be.

Set a Consistent Review Cadence

Create a predictable rhythm for reviewing forecasts. Most teams benefit from a mix of:

• Weekly check-ins to update deal progress and catch early changes

• Monthly reviews to assess pipeline health and adjust targets

• Quarterly reviews to zoom out and refine long-term projections

Having a steady cadence keeps your data fresh and reduces last-minute surprises.

Involve the Right People

Sales data doesn’t tell the whole story on its own. To get a more complete picture, it helps to include other departments that influence revenue.

Marketing can point out changes in lead quality or campaign performance. Customer success might spot churn risks or upsell opportunities. Product teams can flag upcoming releases or changes that could affect sales conversations.

When you bring these teams into the conversation, your forecast reflects what’s actually happening, not just what’s in the CRM.

4. Consider Factors in Internal and External Influences

Even the most detailed pipeline won’t give you the full picture if you’re not accounting for real-world changes. Forecasts can be thrown off by things happening inside your business or outside of it.

To improve accuracy, build a habit of reviewing both internal and external factors that could shift your numbers up or down.

Internal Factors to Consider

These changes come from inside your organization and can affect sales performance mid-quarter:

• New hires – Ramping reps may need time before hitting quota.

• Layoffs or departures – Fewer reps usually means fewer deals closed.

• Territory changes – New assignments may cause a short-term dip in productivity.

• Policy or process changes – Changes to commission structures or CRM processes can influence rep behavior.

• Product updates – New features or launches may improve (or complicate) sales conversations.

External Factors to Monitor

These are outside your control but still impact how deals move:

• Economic conditions – Shifts in interest rates, inflation, or market confidence.

• Seasonality – Some quarters are naturally busier than others, depending on your industry.

• Legislative or regulatory changes – New rules can influence customer decision-making.

• Industry trends or competitor moves – Changes in market trends can create urgency or cause delays in decision-making, so your forecast should reflect shifts as they happen

The more proactive you are about tracking these, the more realistic your forecasts will be. Add a quick review of these factors to your forecast meetings so your team can adjust as needed before the numbers go sideways.

5. Leverage Automation and Advanced Tools

Relying on spreadsheets or manual updates makes forecasting more difficut than it needs to be. 

Today’s sales teams have access to tools that not only save time but also improve forecast accuracy, but only if those tools are set up correctly and used consistently.

Use CRM Systems for Structured Data

A well-maintained CRM is a great place to start. It gives your team one central place to track every deal, from first contact to close. 

But for it to work, the data inside has to be clean and consistent. That means reps need to follow the same process when logging activity, updating deal stages, and entering close dates.

The more structured your CRM data is, the more reliable your forecast becomes. And when everyone works from the same source of truth, it’s easier to spot patterns, risks, and opportunities early.

Add AI-Powered Forecasting Tools

Automation takes your CRM one step further. Instead of just storing data, forecasting tools analyze it, showing trends, identifying risks, and helping you predict outcomes with more confidence.

Truva is one example. It works behind the scenes to track sales activity automatically (like calls, meetings, and emails), then organizes those details into a clear, structured view of your pipeline. 

With Truva, your sales forecasts are powered by real-time data, not static reports or outdated updates.

That means your team can spend less time on admin and more time closing deals.

Common Sales Forecasting Mistakes to Avoid

Even when you’ve got a good process in place, a few small mistakes can throw your forecast way off.

Here are some of the most common issues to watch for and how to avoid them.

• Outdated or missing data - If your CRM isn’t current, your forecast won’t be either. Deals that aren’t updated or fields left blank make it hard to see what’s real. Tools like Truva automatically track sales activity and update your CRM, so nothing gets missed.

• Guessing instead of using real data - Basing forecasts on how a deal “feels” instead of what’s actually happening leads to surprises. Use activity-based insights and deal progress to guide your forecast, not gut instinct.

• Using the wrong forecasting method - No single method fits every team. If you’re using a top-down approach when a bottom-up view fits better, your numbers may be off. Pick a method that matches how your team actually sells.

• Forgetting about external factors - Things like seasonality, market changes, or team turnover can affect outcomes. Ignoring them leads to missed targets. Always check for outside influences that might shift your forecast.

• Reviewing too late - If you only review your forecast at the end of the month or quarter, you’ve already missed your chance to fix problems. Weekly or biweekly check-ins give you time to correct course.

• Making it one person’s job - Forecasting isn’t just for sales managers. Reps need to update their own deals, and other teams (like marketing and success) can offer important context. When everyone contributes, your forecast gets more accurate.

How Truva Helps You Forecast with Confidence

Let’s say your team has ten deals in the pipeline, but no one’s updated the CRM in over a week. One rep forgot to log a client call, another didn’t change the deal stage after a demo, and now your forecast is off again. Sound familiar?

This kind of guesswork is exactly what makes forecasting feel like a moving target. That’s where Truva steps in.

Truva keeps your pipeline updated automatically. It tracks every sales activity, such as emails, calls, meetings, and even voice notes, and pulls the right details into your CRM without any extra work from your team. 

That means your forecast is always built on what’s actually happening, not what you hope is happening.

Key Features

• Automated CRM updates – Tracks sales activities in real time and updates your CRM automatically. No more missed notes or outdated deal stages.

• Custom data extraction – Pulls in exactly what your team needs, from goals and objections to deal-specific details.

• Meeting summaries and transcripts – Delivers full recordings and clear summaries of every call, making follow-ups faster and easier.

• Smart follow-up suggestions – Recommends next steps and personalized email drafts based on what happened in the meeting.

• Activity insights and sentiment analysis – Helps you spot deal risks, track engagement, and understand customer reactions.

• Easy integrations – Works with tools you already use like Salesforce, HubSpot, Zoom, Slack, and Gmail.

Sales teams using Truva have seen up to 25% more sales just by removing the guesswork and focusing on real opportunities.

Pricing Plans

• Sales Professional – $30 per seat/month – Perfect for growing teams. Unlocks unlimited users, advanced sales analytics, and team collaboration tools.

• Enterprise – Custom pricing – Designed for larger organizations. Includes advanced security, dedicated support, and custom API access.

Try Truva for free today, or book a demo to see how it helps you forecast with more clarity and less cleanup.

FAQs About How to Improve Sales Forecasting Accuracy

How can forecasting accuracy be improved?

You can improve forecasting accuracy by keeping your data clean, using a clear and simple forecasting method, and checking your numbers often. Using a tool like Truva helps by automatically tracking sales activity, so you're always working with real-time data.

How do you make a sales forecast accurate?

To make a sales forecast accurate, make sure your team updates the pipeline regularly and uses real deal information. Set up weekly or monthly reviews, and let Truva handle the data collection so your team can focus on the deals, not spreadsheets.

How to improve revenue forecast accuracy?

You can improve revenue forecast accuracy by using consistent methods, tracking data in real time, and adjusting for changes like seasonality or team shifts. With Truva, you get clean, structured data and clear insights that help you forecast sales with confidence.

Which of the following are ways to improve forecast accuracy?

You can improve forecast accuracy by setting a clear sales process, keeping data up-to-date, reviewing your forecast regularly, working closely with other teams, and using tools like Truva to save time and reduce errors.

Does historical data help improve forecast accuracy?

Yes, looking at historical sales data gives you a strong starting point. You can use historical forecasting to spot patterns in past performance and understand what usually happens during certain months or seasons. Just make sure your historical data is complete and clean; otherwise, it might lead you in the wrong direction.